OPEC sees oil supply surge from United States countering its cuts


This comes as the Energy Information Administration shocked markets with big product draws as bears hang onto the fact that USA oil production is rising and the one-week shock build in crude oil supply.

Oil prices gained 0.4 percent in choppy trade on Wednesday, after a report showing a bigger-than-expected US crude stock build was offset by large distillate and gasoline inventory draws.

Crude has struggled to recover losses from last month's broader market slump after topping $66 a barrel in January. For example, if the rig count doubled by 2025, US tight oil could peak earlier at around 12 million BPD but would then decline more rapidly if the same total resource is extracted over the Outlook period. Output has been helped by the 25% rise in oil prices over the past year, along with improvements in efficiency and technology. American production rose to 10.4 million barrels a day, the highest in weekly data going back to 1983, according to the EIA.

It noted that global trade growth accelerated from 2.5 percent in 2016 to 4.7 percent previous year, which was likely behind an increase in demand for certain fuels.

Oil slid in NY amid concern that global demand might not absorb swelling US supplies.

Still, surging USA output continued to stoke fears.

The nuclear deal suspended United States and European sanctions that severely restricted Iranian oil exports, in exchange for concessions on Iran's nuclear program.

CRISIS Venezuela is in the midst of a downturn
GETTYCRISIS Venezuela is in the midst of an economic downturn

But for other oil exporters around the world, including fellow members of OPEC, the crisis in Venezuela's oil sector might be good news as they could produce more without leading to a drop in prices.

Moody's Investors Service has raised its medium-term price band for crude oil to $45 (RM175)-$65 (RM253) per barrel (bbl) from $40 (RM155) - $60 (RM233)/bbl. Previously, crude oil's largest share of total USA petroleum exports was 13% in 1999, when total volumes of US petroleum exports were less than 1.0 million b/d, which was much lower than the 6.3 million b/d total in 2017.

Crude price outlook: The continued ascent of American shale production will keep price momentum depressed, with Brent likely to trend towards US$63-64/b and WTI at US$60-61/b.

Its production fell to a 30-year-low of 1.57 million b/d in February, according to the latest S&P Global Platts OPEC survey, not counting a major labor strike in late 2002 and early 2003.

On Wednesday, Opec raised its forecast for non-member oil supply this year to nearly double the growth predicted four months ago.

OPEC also said oil inventories across the most industrialized countries rose in January for the first time in eight months, a sign the impact of its output cuts may be waning.

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