Economic Analysis Shows Brexit Impact on UK Finance Services to be Slight

Share

The British economy grew more strongly than economists expected in the final three months of 2017, official data showed on Friday, increasing the chances that the Bank of England could raise interest rates again this year. "Along with the upside surprise to wage growth in the labour market data published earlier this week, the improving growth momentum makes the Bank of England's ultra-accommodative policy stance even harder to justify".

Manufacturing growth contributed to a 0.6 per cent rise for production industries over the quarter, but that was partly offset by a "significant" fall in oil and gas extraction following the temporary shuttering of the North Sea Forties pipeline over the bulk of December.

Compared to the fourth quarter of 2016, GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, from the 1.7% annual growth in the previous quarter, but again this was better than the 1.4% consensus forecast.

Following the report, the pound was significantly higher and was up over 1 percent against the dollar at 9.45 a.m. GMT.

'But we are not complacent, which is why we are investing billions of pounds in transport, housing, digital connectivity and skills as we build an economy fit for the future - supporting people for generations to come'.

"As he put it, "there is the prospect this year, as there is greater clarity with the relationship with Europe and subsequently with the rest of the world, for a conscious recoupling of the United Kingdom economy with the global economy".

The release came shortly after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney admitted that the vote to leave the European Union had cost the United Kingdom "tens of billions of pounds" in lost economic activity, blaming the "Brexit effect" for holding back investment in the UK.

Mr Dixon says there are two things to highlight from fourth quarter GDP growth.

Economic Analysis Shows Brexit Impact on UK Finance Services to be Slight
Economic Analysis Shows Brexit Impact on UK Finance Services to be Slight

"If the world economy is really picking up, the United Kingdom probably should be performing even stronger than it now is, and highlights what the United Kingdom might lose out from in the event that it has to renegotiate all its trade deals once again", Commerzbank economist Peter Dixon said.

Without Brexit, the UK economy would probably have expanded by around 2.5%, Kallum Pickering, senior UK Economist at Berenberg, said.

However, Jacob Deppe, Head of Trading at online trading platform, Infinox, told Express.co.uk that the UK's growth is "positively pedestrian".

It looks very much as if 2017 will have been the best year for the global economy since the financial crisis - with the United States, the eurozone and most of Asia, including previously moribund Japan, enjoying synchronised growth. United Kingdom economy with the global economy'.

"But in the face of the dire warnings about how Brexit could stop the British economy in its tracks, pedestrian is still an achievement".

The BoE said last month it expected the economy might have slowed slightly in late 2017.

Growth is expected to slow further this year to 1.4%, as living standards remain under pressure from the sterling-induced upsurge in inflation and companies delay investment until they see what Brexit means for trade.

"With the U.S., the Eurozone and much of Asia all performing strongly, it's likely that the rising economic tide will lift all boats - especially trading nations like Britain".

More news: Sonos bundle offer 2 Alexa-powered speakers at a discount
More news: Casey Affleck won't attend Academy Awards in apparent #MeToo fallout
More news: New Microsoft Games Will Hit Xbox Game Pass on Release Day

Share