Mark Carney: Rate hikes will be 'gradual' and 'limited'


GBP AUD has weakened from its best levels since yesterday and now trends below 1.69.

Sterling saw a surge in strength towards the end of last week, as a surprisingly hawkish Bank of England (BoE) meeting minutes report, as well as hawkish comments from BoE officials, made the Pound much more appealing.

Britain's pound fell over half a percent on Monday after the Bank of England's governor Mark Carney said that any rise in United Kingdom interest rates in the coming months would be limited and gradual.

The market pricing sees a 73 per cent chance of a rate increase in November this year, with an increase in interest rates by March now fully priced in.

He cautioned that any rate rises would be at "a gradual pace and to a limited extent". He also issued fresh warnings on the damage the Brexit process could cause to Britain's economy.

As a result, GBP investors will be focusing on Wednesday's United Kingdom retail sales report from August.

The report in The Telegraph newspaper - which came two days before British Prime Minister Theresa May is due to make a key speech in Italy on Brexit - said close friends of Johnson believed he would have no choice but to walk away if May advocates permanently paying for access to the European Union's single market. If May strongly hints at a "hard Brexit", the Pound outlook is likely to worsen again. That means that monetary policy "has to move in order to standstill".

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While the bank perceives that Australia's job market is improving, it remains concerned about wage growth and the domestic housing market.

To some economists, the strong sentiment data indicated that investors are now not particularly anxious about the strength of the Euro.

Vince Cable, the leader of the Liberal Democrats, claimed Theresa May suppressed Home Office reports that found little evidence of immigration lowering United Kingdom wages.

This caution, as well as the bank's repeated concerns about the strength of the Australian Dollar itself, have given investors little reason to buy the risky "Aussie".

According to CEBR's updated view of the United Kingdom economy in 2018, gains in manufacturing and a solid labor market will encourage investment and consumer spending as the monetary authorities prepare to step in to fix the faltering economy.

The "Aussie" has also been held back by the recently poor price performance of iron ore, Australia's most lucrative commodity. But this time, there have been indications from Carney, as well as previously dovish MPC members such as Gertjan Vileghe, who was previously considered the Bank's strongest opponent of a rate hike.

In the Monetary Policy Committee last week, the MPC held rates at 0.25% but minutes revealed "slightly stronger than anticipated" United Kingdom economic growth could lead to a rate hike.