YouGov poll one week before election predicts hung parliament


May called the snap election in a bid to strengthen her hand in negotiations on Britain's exit from the European Union, to win more time to deal with the impact of the divorce and to strengthen her grip on the Conservative Party.

The polling company's seat projection study for the Times has resulted in a constituency-by-constituency estimate, which indicates what could happen on a good night and bad night for the Conservatives. On Thursday, YouGov said their model showed the Conservatives were 9 seats short of a majority.

Theresa May could lose her overall majority in the general election, a shock YouGov poll has predicted.

But if she does not handsomely beat the 12-seat majority Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed and her authority could be undermined just as she tries to deliver what she has told voters will be a successful Brexit.

"The near-term risks to sterling remain heavily tilted to the downside", Samuel Tombs, chief United Kingdom economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in a research note on Tuesday.

The euro also recovered from Tuesday's low of $1.1110 to $1.1176 EUR=D4, despite worries about an early election in Italy and a softer-than-expected inflation reading in Germany.

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British Prime Minister Theresa May's lead over the opposition Labour Party dropped to 6 percentage points in a poll published on Tuesday, the latest to show a tightening race since the Manchester bombing and a U-turn over social care plans.

What has the reaction been to the YouGov projection?

"As this campaign has gone on, I think more and more people have seen what the consequences of a Tory government with an increased majority would be and they don't like that".

The newspaper, which publishes YouGov's regular opinion polls, said the new election model was based on voting intention data collected over the past week which put support for the Conservatives at 42% with Labour on 38%, a narrower gap than any recent polls.

As the YouGov modeling allows big variations, the research also suggests the possibility the Tories could win up to 345 seats, The Times noted.

"The data suggests that there is churn on all fronts, with the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats likely to both lose and gain seats", he was quoted as saying.