IMD Sees 2017 Monsoon Rains At 98% Of Long-term Average


India's annual monsoon rainfall is expected to be 98% of the long-term average, the country's state-run weather office said on Tuesday, raising prospects of higher farm and economic growth.

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) upgraded its forecast the monsoon to 98% of long period average (LPA) from the 96% of LPA forecasted in April.

Besides upgrading the assessment on quantitative rainfall over the monsoon season, IMD also gave details on region-wise rains.

Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2017 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be NORMAL 96 percent to 104 percent of long period average (LPA).

Under south peninsula fall Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, the Lakshadweep, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

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The rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96 percent of its LPA during July and 99 percent of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 percent. This forecast includes a model error of +/- 4%.

According to the weatherman, below 90 per cent rainfall is considered deficient and at 95 per cent, it is considered below normal. As per IMD's weather model-MMCFS, neutral ENSO conditions are likely till end of this year.

India's forecasting systems now indicates neutral El Nino conditions until the end of this year, the IMD said, in contrast to the outlook from other global climate centres which see a 60 percent probability of weak El Nino conditions developing during the second half of this year.

Last year, the IMD had made an initial forecast of "above normal" rainfall, but it belied its prediction and ended the seasons with normal precipitation. In addition to the ENSO conditions over Pacific, other factors such as the Indian Ocean SSTs have also influence on monsoon rainfall. The LPA rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm.