British prime minister May could lose majority in June 8 election


In contrast to signs from a string of opinion polls that have suggested May's Conservatives will increase their majority, the new constituency-by-constituency modelling by YouGov showed it might lose 20 of the 330 seats it holds and the opposition Labour Party could gain almost 30 seats, The Times said.

But some market participants say signs of softness in some economic data have raised questions about whether the Fed can hike interest rates two more times this year and begin shrinking its balance sheet. The poll is based on a new methodology, founded on a constituency-by-constituency selected panel of 50,000 interviews a week.

Previous opinion polls suggested Prime Minister Theresa May's party would increase their majority, which is now 17 seats.

At the same time, a Labour figure in the Midlands said that although the Tories' social care gaffe had helped them along a bit, leader Jeremy Corbyn's unpopularity was continuing to put off natural Labour voters.

According to the survey, the current government may find itself 16 seats short of a majority, and 21 short of David Cameron's majority back in 2015.

Another poll released on Tuesday from The Guardian/ICM placed the Conservatives in a 12-point lead over Labour, a bigger lead than other polls suggested but signalling a significant shift nonetheless.

Several opinion polls have shown a narrowing lead for the Conservatives, shaking confidence among investors in an election victory read as strengthening May's hand in Brexit talks next month.

In language echoing Yes Minister's Sir Humphrey Appleby, leading pollsters have described YouGov's "shock poll" predicting a hung parliament on 8 June as "brave" and the decision by the Times to splash it on its front page as "even braver".

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In contrast to YouGov's model, other projections suggested May would win soundly.

A bad night could see the Conservatives plummet to 274 seats.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, said that "if voters behave in the way they broadly did in 2015, then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority".

During the European Union referendum campaign it consistently showed that more voters favoured Leave than Remain.

What could influence the vote on June 8?

"The Conservatives have maintained the lead in polls, including yesterday's ICM poll, and are the favourites to win".

Pickering said Berenberg would not be surprised if the outcome of the United Kingdom general election also turned out to be a surprise, even while all the polls still project that the Conservatives will be ahead in the vote.